Predicting NFL Records

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Earlier in the NFL season, I thought that Drew Brees would break Dan Marino's record, which obviously didn't happen.  He came close though, and it came down to his last pass of the season, which fell incomplete.

Based on Brees' strength of schedule, I predicted that he would finish with 5,111 yards.  He finished with 5,069, which makes the prediction off by only 42 yards, or 0.8%.  The prediction happened after he had already played 6 games, so it's not too surprising that it was very close.

Even though he didn't break the record, I still think it's important to try to predict whether a record gets broken.  I might try to develop a probability for the prediciton, instead of just a yes/no prediction.

Since I had predicted he would get just barely above Marino's record, I should have given him something like a 52% chance of breaking the record, instead of 100%.

We'll have to wait until next year to see if anyone is close to breaking another record though.

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Categories: projections, stats