Jeremy Langford 's fantasy value has been rising fast in the past week. In a year starved for quality running backs, can Langford be a savior for your fantasy team?
Langford had been sitting solidly in the mid-5th round for the past month. However, the pre-season game against the Patriots on August 18th changed everything.
In that game, Langford had eight carries for 55 yards and a touchdown. That performance answered questions around his ability and workload.
Below is Langford’s average draft position for 12-team drafts in PPR scoring over the past month. The data is driven by PPR fantasy football mock drafts here on Fantasy Football Calculator.
His ADP has now risen to the 11th pick in the 4th round.
His performance yesterday against the Chiefs was somewhat mixed. He only went 6 for 17 yards, but he demonstrated that he is clearly the lead back. He also had a nice 10 yard gain that showed burst and power (video @ NFL.com)
However! There is a reason he’s not a 1st or 2nd rounder. Given that he’s a lead running back, why is he so low to begin with?
Both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus warn that Langford isn’t a special talent. Their advanced metrics are tepid on the 2nd year running back, which is one reason why Langford is available in the 4th round.
Langford can fit into your draft strategy if you are willing to pull the trigger on him in the 4th round. If you wait until the 5th round, it will probably be too late.
While is average draft position is 4.11, the Scenario Calculator shows that in a 12-team PPR league, you only have a 28% chance of him being on the board at the 5.03 draft pick.
If you take him in the late 4th, he could fit into a WR/WR/RB/RB strategy. In 12-team PPR leagues, drafting from the 3rd position, that strategy performs significantly better than other draft strategies, scoring an extra 3 fantasy points per week.
And if you’re going wide receiver heavy early in your draft, a quick look at the other running backs being taken in the 4th round shows that they all have their own question marks as well.
Many signs are pointing to a breakthrough year for Jeremy Langford. As a 4th round draft pick, he could give you excellent running back production after you’ve loaded up on wide receivers.
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