Thursday Night Football Preview
- Spread: Commanders -5.5
- Over/Under 44.5
The Chicago Bears are headed to Washington after suffering their 14th consecutive loss in a heartbreaker against Denver. The Commanders also lost a close one in overtime against the Philadelphia Eagles. While the Bears are trying to finally get into the win column, the Commanders are trying not fall behind in the NFC playoff race after losing their last two games. There's a chance to see a lot of offense in this game. Both defenses are giving up 30+ points per game and the Bears are allowing over six yards per play. The question is if either offense can take advantage of the opportunity. Chicago looked electric, at times, against the Broncos and the Commanders have a balanced offense that put up 31 points against the Eagles. There's a decent chance this game goes well over the Vegas total and becomes a shootout.
Showdown Strategy
There are ways to approach this game. The first way is that Vegas is right and Washington wins a low scoring game while keeping the Bears to under 20 points. In that scenario, I like Fields as Captain and I would consider the Bears kicker, as well. However, the second way to approach the game is a more contrarian, but feasible view. As I mentioned earlier, this game could easily become a high-scoring affair. I could see the Commanders coming out on top 30-24. In this case, I like Terry McLaurin or Brian Robinson in the Captain spot. I'm inclined to believe the latter will happen, so I'm building my lineup around the Washington offense.
Captain Choices (1.5x points, 1.5x salary)
Justin Fields, QB, Bears ($16,500)
Fields will likely be the highest-owned player on the slate, but I would fade him at your own risk. He has overall QB-1 potential every week. He has six rushing attempts in the red zone to go along with a very high 5.7% touchdown rate through the air, making him a double-threat to score and the most valuable player in the player pool.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders ($15,300)
McLaurin has been Washington's best receiver this year. He has a 20% target share and is getting over 28% of the team's air yards. Sam Howell has a 120 quarterback rating when targeting McLaurin. I believe the Commanders will have success throwing against the Bears and McLaurin will be the biggest beneficiary of that.
- Sam Howell, QB, Commanders ($14,100)
- Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders ($13,800)
Flex Options
- D.J.Moore, WR, Bears ($10,000)
- Khalil Herbert, RB, Bears ($8,600)
- Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders ($7,000)
- Cole Kmet, TE, Bears ($6,400)
- Commanders, Def ($5,400)
- Roschon Johnson, RB, Bears ($4,800)
- Joey Slye, K, Commanders ($4,200)
- Antonio Gibson, RB, Commanders ($3,200)
- Dyami Brown, WR, Commanders ($2,800)
My Lineup
I think Washington will win this game and cover the spread, so I'm going heavy on the home team. However, I don't think it's wise to fade Justin Fields since he could account for all of the Bears scoring. I put in a couple of low-owned options in Dyami Brown and the Commanders defense to gain some leverage on the field.
- Captain: Terry McLaurin
- Sam Howell
- Dyami Brown
- Commanders Defense
- Justin Fields
- Roschon Johnson
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