As reported in this comprehensive analysis, several former first-round draft picks are positioned to break out in 2025 after struggling to meet expectations in their initial NFL seasons. The evaluation focuses on players who have shown flashes of potential but haven't yet achieved star status, with Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson and Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston headlining the list.
Anthony Richardson: The Raw Talent Ready to Emerge
Despite accuracy concerns and limited playing time, Richardson remains one of the most intriguing quarterback prospects in the league. His unique combination of physical tools and developmental circumstances sets up a potential breakout season.
"This freaky specimen threw 393 passes at Florida before being drafted by the Colts in the top five of the 2023 NFL Draft. Since then, he's thrown 348 passes as a professional. Most quarterback prospects attempt more than 741 passes in college alone before they're in the shotgun in the NFL."
The statistical analysis reveals both promise and concern. Richardson's completion percentage dropped from 59.5% in his rookie year to 47.7% in 2024, while his interception rate increased dramatically. However, his rushing ability remains elite, maintaining 5.8 yards per carry, and his Big-Time Throw rate of 6.8% would have ranked fifth in the NFL had he qualified.
"Now in Year 3 of Shane Steichen's offense and an ascending skill-position group around him, I expect Richardson to beat out Daniel Jones in camp, then drift toward stardom during the regular season."
Quentin Johnston: Overcoming a Rocky Start
After a disappointing rookie campaign, Johnston showed significant improvement in his sophomore season, nearly doubling his reception total and quadrupling his touchdown production. His trajectory suggests continued growth in 2025.
"I still believe in you, Quentin Johnston. Even after what amounted to an embarrassing rookie campaign, when essentially everyone wrote him off for good, the Chargers' 2023 first-round selection has gobs of uncoachable talent."
The numbers support optimism around Johnston's development. He improved from 38 receptions for 431 yards in his rookie year to 55 catches for 711 yards in 2024, while his catch rate increased from 56.7% to 60.4%. His ability to create after the catch also evolved dramatically, forcing 15 missed tackles on 55 receptions compared to just five on 38 catches as a rookie.
"With the majority of attention on Ladd McConkey in Justin Herbert's offense, Johnston will have a sneaky-good Year 3 and approach, if not eclipse, the 1,000-yard mark."
Additional Breakout Candidates
The analysis extends beyond quarterbacks and receivers to include several other promising prospects:
Drake London (Atlanta Falcons WR)
Already productive with 100 catches for 1,271 yards and nine touchdowns in 2024, London is positioned for even greater success with rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. developing. His physical frame at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds makes him an ideal target for a young quarterback.
"There's plenty of Brandon Marshall to him. With Penix, London should be able to expand his productivity down the field, where he thrives as a rebounder because of his nearly 6-foot-4, 220-pound frame, and exceptionally reliable, sturdy hands."
Darnell Wright (Chicago Bears OT)
Wright showed improvement in his second season and is expected to benefit from new head coach Ben Johnson's system, which should reduce blocking time and improve the overall offensive line perception.
Calijah Kancey (Tampa Bay Buccaneers DT)
After two seasons of hovering around a 10% pressure rate, Kancey is positioned for a breakout year as an interior pass rusher alongside Vita Vea in Todd Bowles' defense.
Key Takeaways
- Development Takes Time: Most first-round picks require 2-3 seasons to reach their potential, contrary to immediate impact expectations
- Statistical Progression Matters: Players like Johnston showing year-over-year improvement in efficiency metrics are prime breakout candidates
- Situational Factors: System familiarity, coaching changes, and supporting cast improvements can catalyze breakout seasons
- Physical Tools vs. Production: Players with elite physical attributes but limited experience (like Richardson) often have higher ceilings than their current production suggests
- Position Value: Quarterbacks and pass rushers have higher breakout potential due to their positional importance
The 2025 season promises to be defining for these former first-round selections. With Richardson entering his third year in Shane Steichen's system and Johnston building on his sophomore improvements under Jim Harbaugh's guidance, both players have the tools and circumstances necessary to finally fulfill their draft-day promise. The combination of physical talent, improved situations, and natural development curves suggests fans should expect significant breakouts from this group of underperforming former top picks.
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