ADP Update: Baltimore Backfield Questions

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The Ravens offense was awful last year, ranking 30th in the league with 83 rushing yards per game.  However, they have the potential to rebound, especially with Gary Kubiak as the new offensive coordinator.  His past success with Arian Foster could translate into potential fantasy goodness for the Ravens' backfield.  The question is: Who is the primary beneficiary?

Let's look at the most recent ADP data from 12-team standard mock drafts.

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Ray Rice, RB BAL (ADP: 6.02)

In February, Ray Rice was arrested and later indicted with aggravated assault for allegedly assaulting his fiancee in Atlantic City.  Although some disciplinary action is expected, there is currently no timeline for the NFL to rule on his suspension.  However, some are estimating a three-game suspension for Rice.

Since the event, Rice he has been falling down draft boards to the 6th round; rather low for a perennial first round fantasy pick.

Unfortunately, the combination of the looming suspension, plus his poor 3.1 YPC average last year, plus his career 1,800 touches adds up to too much risk.  It's his high upside alone that is buoying him from dropping even farther.

Bernard Pierce, RB BAL (ADP: 8.05)

In the wake of Rice's suspension, Bernard Pierce is likely to get the bulk of the carries for the games that Rice is suspended for.  That would make him a solid RB2 for possibly the first three games of the season.

What happens after that is still anyone's guess.  Some fantasy experts are speculating that Rice will assume his normal workload when he returns.  Others think that if Pierce is successful, it will be hard to take him off the field when Rice gets back.

With a current ADP in the mid-8th round, most fantasy drafters are leaning toward the former, and seem skeptical that Pierce will receive a lot of carries this year.

Dark Horse Candidates

Justin Forsett, Lorenzo Taliaferro, and Cierre Wood are the remaining players on the depth chart that may see carries this year and are going undrafted in most leagues.  If you're in a deeper league, snagging one of these guys wouldn't be a bad idea.  They all have some potential, and nothing is guaranteed for Rice and Pierce this year.

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Categories: ADP, advice