With only two days left until the start of the fantasy football season, some of you probably have a draft or two remaining. And depending on your strategy, you may be waiting to take a quarterback late in the draft.
There are so many decent quarterbacks this year, so drafting one late isn’t necessarily a bad option. That being said, there are still plenty of quarterbacks who are candidates to bust this coming 2018 season. We will take a look at a 12 team PPR ADP and highlight some quarterbacks who have that potential. Let’s focus on QBs currently being drafted as QB1s.
Deshaun Watson – Houston Texans
Deshaun Watson was looking at breaking records in 2017, throwing 19 touchdowns in only six games. If you extrapolate that out over a full season, Watson would have thrown 50 touchdowns in 16 games. Now I could be wrong, but there is just no way Watson can keep up those numbers.
Watson is being drafted late in the fourth round (4.10) as the 2nd QB off the board.
That’s some major draft capital for a guy who is coming off an ACL tear and is probably going to regress a bit in his second season. Watson likes to scramble, which already puts him at an increased injury risk. That, combined with a touchdown regression, makes Watson our first bust candidate. He probably will still finish as a QB-1, but it’s a very risky draft option as the 2nd overall QB.
Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson has been a top-5 QB the last few years, but the soon to be 30 year old quarterback might finally fall out of the top rankings this year. Now there are plenty of things going well for Wilson: bad defense equals more passing and better running backs to help open things up. But Wilson still has to deal with a terrible offensive line and a beat up receiving core.
Wilson is currently being drafted in the sixth round (6.01) as the fourth QB off the board.
The Seahawks in general have been getting worse over the last few years, but this season might be a rough one. WR Doug Baldwin is playing injured, the offensive line barely improved, and the defense lost a ton of talent in the offseason. Wilson has had to play injured as well. I’m not saying Wilson will destroy your team, but this may be the year he finally struggles to make the top 5.
Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles
This pick was a little bit easier to make when it came to bust potential. Carson Wentz is already going to miss the first game or two after tearing his ACL late last season. He also might not have WR Alshon Jeffery, who is trying to come back from a rotator cuff surgery.
Wentz is being drafted as the first pick in round eight. He is the 8th QB off the board.
As I said, Wentz is already at risk for injury thanks to his torn ACL. He may even be a bit slower or more scared to run as well. Wentz is also another candidate for regression. In 2016 he threw for 3782 yards and 16 touchdowns. Last year he threw for 3296 yards and 33 touchdowns…and that was in only 13 games. Wentz will probably be good for around 3500 yards, but will most likely regress to around 20-25 touchdowns. Thanks to that, Wentz is probably being a bit over drafted.
Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck was shaping up to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL until a shoulder injury sidelined him the entire 2017 season. Even this year was a bit in doubt until recently. Luck has had amazing seasons in the past, but can he return to form after an injury that almost ended his career?
Owners must think so, because he is being drafted a few spots behind Wentz (8.04) as the 9th QB off the board.
Now we know Luck can easily be a QB1, but drafting him as your first QB is a little risky. The offensive line isn’t great either, meaning Luck could be hit often. We also really haven’t seen him throw the ball deep very much, so temper your expectations for this year. Luck could easily be a shell of his former self.
Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo has been hyped up all offseason after people saw him lead the 49ers to a 5 game win streak to end the 2017 season. That’s pretty impressive for a new QB to do, but even though his play led to NFL wins, they might not lead to fantasy wins.
Garoppolo is being drafted as the 10th QB off the board. He is going as the first pick in the ninth round, before much more reliable QBs like Matt Stafford, Philip Rivers, or Matt Ryan.
In the five games Garoppolo started last year, he threw for 1560 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions. If you extrapolate that out over a 16 game season, he’d have almost 5000 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. The 5000 yards seems a bit much, but 22 touchdowns and 16 interceptions is a bit worrying. Garoppolo also just lost pass catching RB Jerick Mckinnon for the season. To add to all of that, TE George Kittle is banged up, WR Marqise Goodwin is concussion prone, and WR Pierre Garcon is a bit old. This is shaping up for a potentially disappointing fantasy season for those who draft Garoppolo.